Who voted in Georgia’s runoff elections?

by CRAIG HELMSTETTER | Jan. 7, 2021

Georgia’s voters handed control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats by flipping its two Senate seats in Tuesday’s runoff elections. The runoff election results are historic and bear significant implications for what the incoming Biden administration can achieve. So, who among Georgia’s electorate turned out to vote on Jan. 5 to deliver such significant wins?

Over 4.4 million Georgians voted in the January runoffs, a drop of only 10% compared to the over 4.9 million who voted during the general election in November.

This is a remarkably high turnout for a runoff election. By my tally of Georgia Secretary of State data, fewer voters showed up for all 17 of the runoff elections that have followed general elections in Georgia over the past 20 years (including four special elections in 2009 that coincided with that year’s general election). On average the number of voters turning out to the runoffs dropped by over 60%, including a 43% drop in total votes cast in Georgia’s last U.S. Senate runoff in 2008.

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In total there are nearly 7.4 million eligible voters in Georgia. Sixty-seven percent voted for either of the Senate seats in November, and 60% voted in January.

Who were these voters? And how do they compare to those eligible to vote?

The best available demographic characterization of those who voted this close to the election likely comes from the AP VoteCast survey, which proved largely accurate in 2018. Note that although the VoteCast demographics were nearly identical for both the regular (Ossoff-Perdue) and special (Warnock-Loeffler) Senate elections, I focused on the Warnock-Loeffler race in both the general and runoff elections. For demographic characteristics of Georgia’s voting eligible population, I rely on our Voter Profile Tools, based on U.S. Census Bureau data.

Black voters made up a higher proportion of the electorate in the runoffs

The most notable finding from a comparison of Georgia voters who appear to have turned out in the general election versus the runoff is that Black voters increased from 29% of the electorate to 32%. This relatively high turnout propelled Democrat Raphael Warnock to become Georgia’s first ever elected Black senator; 94% of Black voters cast their ballot for Warnock, identical to the percentage who voted for Ossoff.

Democrats won with help from younger voters

Georgia voters age 18-29 voted nearly 2 to 1 in favor of each of the Democratic candidates. But they were less likely to show up to either the general or runoff election than were those over age 45: 22% of Georgia’s eligible voters are less than 30 years old, but they made up only 16% of those actually voting in November and in January.

Despite the under-representation of younger voters, it is perhaps notable that the turnout of young voters was stronger in Georgia than was the case for the nation as a whole. While 21% of all U.S. voters are age 18-29, only 13% of the electorate was in the age range in the Presidential election. It is also notable that the proportion of young voters did not decline between the general and runoff elections in Georgia.

Turnout consistently higher for college-educated voters

Although only 30% of Georgia’s eligible voters have a college degree, they made up 40% of the actual voters in both November and January. This is a big advantage for Democrats: according to VoteCast results, Warnock won by 6 percentage points among those with a college education, but lost by 2 percentage points among those who lack a college education.

When asked to respond to these comparisons, NORC Vice President and Project Director for the AP VoteCast survey Jennifer Benz, commented: “Young voters turned out [in January] at the same rate as November, and Black voters turned out at a slightly higher rate. Both groups broke for the Democratic candidates. If these groups had sat this election out, it’s very hard to imagine any path that could have led to a victory for the Democrats.”

While the results of Georgia’s historic Senate runoffs will continue to be parsed—including whether President Trump’s claims of election fraud served to depress turnout among Republicans—it seems certain that the Democrats’ victories were driven in part by the younger voters who turned out in somewhat higher proportions than may have been expected, continued higher turnout among college-educated voters, and proportionally increased turnout among the state’s Black voters.

-Craig (On Twitter: @c_helmstetter)